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Oct 31, 2023

미국 정상화

미국-파키스탄 관계는 상호 분노와 역기능에 초점을 맞춰 양국의 국회의원, 언론, 일반 대중 사이에서 종종 부정적으로 묘사됩니다. 초기 관계

미국-파키스탄 관계는 상호 분노와 역기능에 초점을 맞춰 양국의 국회의원, 언론, 일반 대중 사이에서 종종 부정적으로 묘사됩니다. 초기 관계는 인도와의 갈등 지원에 대한 기대치가 일치하지 않아 부담이되었습니다. 1980년대 미국의 아프가니스탄 개입 시작과 다른 우선순위로 인해 관계는 더욱 긴장되었습니다. 미국은 또한 파키스탄과 인도의 핵무기 개발을 제재했는데, 이는 파키스탄에 이질적인 영향을 미쳐 지속적인 긴장을 야기했습니다.

워싱턴의 정책 및 언론계의 많은 사람들은 파키스탄을 지정학적 지대를 추구하지만 거의 실현하지 않는 테러 조장자로 보는 부정적인 견해를 가지고 있습니다. 파키스탄인들은 워싱턴이 냉전과 테러와의 전쟁에서 파키스탄을 "최전선 국가"로 이용하여 수만 명의 목숨을 앗아갔다가 나중에 폐기한 것에 대해 종종 분개합니다. 워싱턴에서는 이러한 불만이 자해로 인해 크게 일축되었습니다. 부정적인 공개 토론에도 불구하고, 두 정부의 공무원들은 일반적으로 기후 변화, 무역, 대테러와 같은 분야에서 미국과 파키스탄이 공유하는 광범위하고 중복되는 이해관계를 인식하면서 좀 더 미묘한 견해를 가지고 있습니다.

파키스탄의 테러, 핵 안보, 인도와의 통제선에 따른 잠재적 갈등에 관한 철저한 문헌이 이미 있습니다. 대신 이 브리핑에서는 무역, ​​지역 통합, 인적 연결, 기후 변화 등 관심을 덜 끌었던 분야에서 혁신적인 외교를 통해 미국-파키스탄 관계를 활성화하는 데 중점을 둘 것입니다.

주요 권고사항은 미국이 파키스탄을 '테러와의 전쟁'이나 강대국 경쟁이라는 협소한 렌즈를 통해 보는 것을 거부해야 한다는 것입니다. 대신 파키스탄이나 지역의 사건에 영향을 미치는 데 있어 미국의 한계를 인정하면서 보다 정상화된 관계를 통해 자국의 이익을 추구해야 합니다.

이 개요에서는 다음과 같은 권장 사항을 제공하며 그 중 일부는 이미 진행 중입니다.

참여 외교: 미국 외교관들은 비국가 행위자와 폭도들의 폭력으로 인한 잠재적인 위협에 직면해 있습니다. 그러나 극단적인 주의는 파키스탄 사회에 참여하는 능력을 제한하고 국가에 대한 외교와 이해를 방해합니다. 국무부는 특히 안전 문제가 다른 지역에 비해 덜 중요한 이슬라마바드 수도 지역, 라호르, 카라치에서 외교관의 이동성을 점진적으로 확대해야 합니다. 이를 위해서는 외교안보국(Diplomatic Security Service)이 위험을 완화하는 임무와 미국 외교관이 업무를 수행할 수 있도록 하는 임무 사이의 균형을 찾는 방법을 찾아야 합니다. 국방부는 이슬라마바드 국방대학 과정을 이수한 미군 장교들이 실제로 국방무관실에서 복무하고, 유럽과 마찬가지로 24개월 동반 복무 제도를 마련하도록 노력해야 한다.

지역 통합 지원: 중국의 안보 및 개발 모델에 대한 대안을 제시하되, 파키스탄을 강대국 경쟁의 장으로 취급하지 마십시오. 인도와 파키스탄 간의 양자 대화를 광범위하고 개인적으로 장려하되 중재하거나 간섭하지 마십시오. 아프가니스탄 문제에 다시 개입하기 위한 통로로 파키스탄을 활용하고 주변 국가의 안보에 영향을 미치고 지역적 불안정을 증가시키는 방식으로 아프가니스탄을 고립시키는 것을 피하십시오. 파키스탄이 탈레반 구성원, 특히 하카니 네트워크(Haqqani Network)와의 오랜 관계를 활용하도록 요구하는 아프가니스탄 탈레반에 대해 다자간 및 실용적인 접근 방식을 채택하십시오.

원조를 개선하고 무역 우선순위를 정합니다. 파키스탄인의 삶을 개선하기 위한 측정 가능한 결과로 프로그램을 재구성하기 위해 현지 파트너 및 프로젝트의 재평가를 포함하여 파키스탄의 USAID에 대한 철저한 평가를 수행합니다. 파키스탄 국민의 이해를 보장하기 위해 성과가 어떻게 전달되는지 검토합니다. 한때 파키스탄 주요 도시에서 미국의 호의를 상징하는 미국 정보 서비스(USIS) 도서관과 같은 계획에 투자하는 것을 고려해 보십시오. 미국 기업의 파키스탄 소비자 시장 진출 확대, 파키스탄의 숙련된 인력 활용, 스타트업 투자에 초점을 맞춘 더 많은 민간 부문 참여를 촉진하여 미국-파키스탄 무역 및 투자 프레임워크(TIFA) 회의를 확대합니다.

On June 7, 2023, the Inter–Services Public Relations, the media wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces, stated, “it is time that noose of law is also tightened around the planners and masterminds” who allegedly planned the events of May 9.https://ispr.gov.pk/press-release-detail?id=6553" rel="footnote">2 Imran Khan’s political future is highly uncertain, and his participation in the upcoming elections as the PTI leader cannot happen since he is now imprisoned under a three–year sentence.Dawn, August 5, 2023, https://www.dawn.com/news/1768528" rel="footnote"3 Proceedings are ongoing and it is possible that Khan’s sentence may be suspended, but PTI’s political influence has waned, despite its popularity, and the security establishment has reasserted itself as the most important pillar of power in the country. The effective dismantling of one of Pakistan’s most popular political parties is concerning for democracy in the country. Nonetheless, Pakistan maintains a lively media, civil society, and vibrant political debates./p>

​​From 2008 to 2014, at least 11,583https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terrorist-attack/fatalities/pakistan" rel="footnote">5 Pakistanis were killed in terrorism incidents, including in major cities, while entire districts like Swat fell under insurgent control.Parallels, NPR, June 2, 2018, https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2018/06/02/601521263/once-ruled-by-taliban-residents-of-pakistans-swat-valley-say-army-should-leave" rel="footnote">6 This era of violence affected all strata of society; events involving the United States, such as the killing of Osama bin Laden, accidental killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers,Washington Post, November 27, 2011, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/pakistani-officials-say-alleged-nato-attack-kills-at-least-12/2011/11/26/gIQA2mqtxN_story.html." rel="footnote">7 and a CIA contractor who shot and killed two Pakistani citizensThe New York Times Magazine, April 9, 2013, https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/14/magazine/raymond-davis-pakistan.html" rel="footnote"8 sparked outrage and a sense of violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. However, in the eyes of many U.S. technocrats, military leaders, and diplomats, Pakistan bears primary responsibility for its troubles. They point to Pakistan’s support for groups like the Haqqani Network, which killed U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan and now enables Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) to target Pakistan. Moreover, the fact that Osama bin Laden found refuge near Abbottabad in Pakistan continues to evoke lasting resentment./p>

Resentment towards U.S. interference in the region is often perceived through the lens of colonialism’s legacy, although the United States was not a colonial power in South Asia. Pakistani leaders sometimes benefit from using anti–American sentiment for political gain.https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/on-pakistani-anti-americanism/" rel="footnote"9 This tactic can rally support, redirect discontent, or be used to attack other powerful stakeholders. Imran Khan, the former prime minister, made U.S. regime change allegations a campaign slogan, and some view it as a euphemism for military interference.10 Military dictators, dynastic politicians, and Islamists have all tried to portray themselves as moderates who can control anti–Americanism in Pakistani society to gain favor in Washington. While Pakistan’s military is criticized by some in the United States, many still see it as a necessary stopgap against violent extremism and anti–Americanism.11/p>

Some degree of antagonism toward Washington will be a feature of any democratic Pakistan.The Annals of the American Academy of Political Science, vol. 497 (May 1988): 35–45, https://www.jstor.org/stable/1045758?searchText=anti-americanism&searchUri=%2Faction%2FdoBasicSearch%3FQuery%3Danti-americanism%26so%3Drel&ab_segments=0%2FSYC-6294%2Fcontrol&refreqid=fastly-default%3A549df485bc85c82dd0507d6f1ecfdb4f&seq=1 " rel="footnote">12 On July 24, 2023, during a press briefing, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller once again denied Washington’s involvement in removing Imran Khan from office, stating, “I feel like I need to bring just a sign that I can hold up in response to this question to say that that allegation is not true.”https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-july-24-2023/" rel="footnote">13 In early August, The Intercept published what they claimed was a diplomatic cable written by Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, Asad Majeed Khan, documenting a conversation with Donald Lu, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs.The Intercept, August 9, 2023, https://theintercept.com/2023/08/09/imran-khan-pakistan-cypher-ukraine-russia/" rel="footnote"14 The contents of the alleged cipher suggest that Lu communicated that U.S.-Pakistan relations would improve if then–prime minister Imran Khan were removed by a no–confidence vote. Lu’s alleged assessment may very well have been fair, and signals from Washington are taken seriously by Pakistan’s military establishment, which seeks to balance its relationship with and dependence on both the U.S. and China. However, as mentioned earlier in this brief, Washington is unable to coerce Pakistan’s military establishment, let alone its lawmakers, into taking an action they do not wish to pursue. The primary driver of Khan’s removal was likely his challenge to the security establishment and opportunism of his political opposition. Differences aside, Pakistan’s security establishment and mainstream political parties, including PTI, all desire positive relations with the United States. However, Washington’s hyphenation of Pakistan with other countries and Islamabad’s comparatively lofty expectations have led to a volatile relationship. Both countries would benefit from having more realistic expectations of the other. The primary driver of Khan’s removal was likely his challenge to the security establishment and opportunism of his political opposition./p>

For two decades, the presence of U.S. troops in Afghanistan held the U.S.–Pakistan relationship hostage to a failing counterinsurgency and fledgling Afghan state. Accusations of Pakistani double–dealing or American neglect shed little light on this period. The disconnect was rooted in conflicting assumptions about what was best for the region and how committed Washington was to its project in Afghanistan. Despite a reported doubling of terrorist incidents in Pakistan, from 319 in 2020 to 630 in 2022,https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terrorist-attack/incidents-data/pakistan" rel="footnote"15 neither the United States nor Pakistan seems to prioritize the issue. There is a logic to this: looming economic and political crises threaten greater instability than suicide blasts. /p>

Washington and Islamabad also share a convergence of interests in Afghanistan beyond counterterrorism but have limited leverage to achieve them. Both want a more inclusive government that respects Afghan rights and prevents Afghanistan from becoming a terrorist safe haven. But countries that border Afghanistan have no choice other than to engage pragmatically with the Taliban. The United States should not underestimate the impact of an isolated Afghanistan on its neighbors and adopt a multilateral, pragmatic approach to dealing with the Taliban.Foreign Policy, March 23, 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/23/taliban-afghanistan-diplomatic-strategy-united-states/" rel="footnote"16/p>

Achieving positive policy advancements in Afghanistan will require direct and regular U.S. dialogue with the Taliban inside Afghanistan, fostering rapport, personal relationships, and trust, instead of relying on intermediaries or exclusively engaging with cabinet figures in Doha.https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/23/taliban-afghanistan-diplomatic-strategy-united-states/" rel="footnote">17 The U.S.–Taliban agreement initiated an unprecedented dialogue between top Taliban leaders and U.S. officials, despite its limitations. However, this initial goodwill is diminishing rapidly. A study on diplomacy with the Taliban conducted by the United States Institute of Peace warned that “the loss of trust in formal dialogue is not only shared by international representatives but also by decision–makers within the Taliban.”https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Afghanistan-Peace-Process_The-Talibans-Crisis-of-Diplomacy.pdf, p. 2" rel="footnote"18/p>

U.S.–Pakistan relations and discussions of those relations have been disproportionately focused on traditional security aspects, particularly terrorism. The Biden administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) released in October 2022 did not mention Pakistan even once, which caused concern in some quarters of Pakistan’s civil society and government. In comparison, the Obama administration’s NSS released in May 2010 mentioned Pakistan 12 times in the body of the text.https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf" rel="footnote"19 However, this provides an opportunity for relations to move beyond the narrow security realm, which will be explained in detail below and form the basis for the recommendations in this brief. /p>

After the partition of British India in 1947, Pakistan’s economy made strides by shifting to value–added products, leading to significant export growth. However, this progress relied on import substitution, resulting in overreliance on cotton–based products and textiles, production of non–competitive products, and chronic balance of payments problems.Pakistan: The Economy of an Elitist State (Oxford University Press, 1999) 280–81, 290." rel="footnote"21 This policy also led to an elite bargain where unproductive sectors receive substantial government subsidies, foreign investment is low, and small businesses struggle to access financing. /p>

In current times, Pakistan heavily relies on foreign aid, loans, and remittances as it spends more than it earns. In fiscal year 2022, the general government deficit was 7.9 percent of GDP, and public debt reached 78 percent of GDP. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099041223153536828/P17507702d44490bd0bb660b4b60037e930PER, 1. This is the first PER report since 2010." rel="footnote">22 In July 2022, over seventy percent of all bank credit in Pakistan was extended to the public sector, which leads to a high interdependence between the government and the financial sector. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099041223153536828/P17507702d44490bd0bb660b4b60037e930PER, 3-4." rel="footnote"23 This presents the risk of significant financial losses for the financial sector if the government fails to service its debts, potentially destabilizing the entire financial system.24 The private sector also faces challenges in obtaining sufficient credit due to the dominance of public sector borrowing. /p>

Pakistan also faces challenges with tax collection and circular debt. Provinces receive the majority of the country’s revenue, while the federal government struggles to cover its expenses. In fiscal year 2022, the federal government used 46 percent of total tax revenue to cover 67 percent of the country’s expenditures. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099041223153536828/P17507702d44490bd0bb660b4b60037e930PER, 5." rel="footnote">25 Pakistan’s tax collection is below the regional average, with numerous exceptions for certain industries, salaried employees, and income brackets. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099041223153536828/P17507702d44490bd0bb660b4b60037e930PER, 12–13." rel="footnote">26 As of 2018, only 1.5 million taxpayers were registered — i.e., less than one percent of the population.https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/0282d8a4-ba2e-55fe-8c34-ff028c61fd6f/content, 6." rel="footnote">27 Regressive subsidies further exacerbate income inequality. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099041223153536828/P17507702d44490bd0bb660b4b60037e930PER, 7." rel="footnote">28 Economic growth is also hindered by energy shortages, with almost 40 percent of Pakistan’s total primary energy supply imported.https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-energy-outlook-2030.pdf" rel="footnote"29 Circular debt in the energy sector is a recurring problem, with power generation companies, distribution companies, and the government owing each other money, leading to a net buildup of debt and prolonged power outages.30/p>

Approximately 32 percent of Pakistan’s population is between 10–24 years old.https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/PK" rel="footnote"31 The country’s economy isn’t growing quickly enough to absorb new job seekers, even though women — including those with higher education — are underutilized in the workforce. The elite and upper middle class use their social status to secure positions and live luxuriously regardless of their profession. Otherwise, upward mobility is rare, regardless of qualifications. The military and civil service offer some mobility, but they too are plagued by elite culture and opportunities in well–paid manufacturing jobs and trades are limited. If not for visa restrictions and family obligations, there would be an even greater brain drain. In contrast, India and Bangladesh offer greater upward mobility despite inequality. /p>

The recently approved IMF package has saved Pakistan from defaulting on its financial obligations in the short term and was approved largely due to external financing pledges by Pakistan’s friends.https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/07/12/pr23261-pakistan-imf-exec-board-approves-us3bil-sba#:~:text=Washington%2C%20DC%3A%20Today%2C%20the,the%20authorities’%20economic%20stabilization%20program." rel="footnote"32 It will alleviate the immediate crisis, but it will buy months, not years. The solution to Pakistan’s economic dysfunction lies in the hands of the country’s political, economic, and military elites, who must undo the elite bargain that exists among them. This will require properly taxing individuals and industries, reducing protectionist policies, and vigorously pursuing foreign investment. The Pakistani state must dismantle the regulatory barriers that hinder both domestic and foreign investment.33/p>

The United States is Pakistan’s single largest destination for exports, accounting for 21.1 percent of total exports, with China in second place at 10.5 percent according to World Bank data.https://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/PAK; “Pakistan”, Office of the United States Trade Representative, accessed August, 2023, https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/pakistan; Pakistan was the United States’ 57th largest goods export market prior to the pandemic in 2019, and 56th largest good trading partner if two-way trade is considered." rel="footnote"34 Many Pakistani products don’t reach American consumers because Pakistani firms fail to navigate U.S. regulations. For example, producers of Pakistan’s world–renowned mangoes have struggled to reach U.S. consumers largely due to the absence of an approved irradiation center in Pakistan.35/p>

The United States and Pakistan should continue to meet under the U.S.–Pakistan Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA), which was signed by both countries in 2003.https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/agreements/tifa/asset_upload_file849_9759.pdf" rel="footnote"36 Merely talking is insufficient, and efforts should be bolstered by facilitating U.S. private sector delegations that can uncover fresh avenues for American companies to tap into Pakistan’s expanding consumer market and leverage Pakistan’s nascent but growing skilled tech workforce, explore startup investments, and solidify business agreements. The private sector must take the lead in this endeavor, but the U.S. Embassy’s encouragement can be instrumental. However, the primary obstacles for enhancing economic ties lie within Pakistan, requiring the proactive engagement of its government to modernize industries and remove barriers to foreign investment./p>

The United States has a significant economic presence in Pakistan that extends beyond trade. During the last two decades, the United States has given over $32 billion in direct support to the people of Pakistan through different agencies.https://pk.usembassy.gov/our-relationship/policy-history/us-assistance-to-pakistan/" rel="footnote">37 Much of this is overseen by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the U.S. agency primarily responsible for administering development assistance around the world. USAID has failed to generate the same level of goodwill as Chinese investment, even when Beijing’s investment is perceived as predatory (as in the Gwadar Port). Additionally, the effectiveness of USAID falls behind that of the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID).https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThaMPQfGmSU" rel="footnote"38/p>

USAID’s operations in Pakistan require a significant reevaluation that is beyond the scope of this brief. USAID should reconsider its self–imposed limitations on the mobility of its personnel, reluctance to participate in large–scale infrastructure projects, and its focus on initiatives intended to foster democracy or tolerance, even when such programs are clearly ineffective.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThaMPQfGmSU. Nadim Hussain served as Executive Director of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute from 2020–22. The Institute is an Islamabad–based think tank affiliated with the National Security Division of the Government of Pakistan, which falls under the Office of the Prime Minister." rel="footnote"39 USAID has also created an atmosphere where NGOs function more like consulting firms competing for contracts than as local entities seizing an opportunity. This incentivizes partners on the ground to prioritize solutions appealing to U.S. technocrats, rather than those effective in Pakistani society. /p>

USAID’s capacity in Pakistan is constrained by its limited budget, which falls short of what is required, and its understanding of the country.https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/publication/pakistanseducationcrisistherealstory2.pdf " rel="footnote">40 Given these limitations, USAID should prioritize projects in healthcare, sanitation, climate resilience, and some infrastructure, while avoiding initiatives that implicate cultural sensitivities. Social change should be organic. Washington’s utilization of the public health sector for covert security purposes continues to haunt current vaccination programs and should never be repeated.All Things Considered, NPR, September 6, 2021, https://www.npr.org/2021/09/06/1034631928/the-cias-hunt-for-bin-laden-has-had-lasting-repercussions-for-ngos-in-pakistan#:~:text=But%20the%20bin%20Laden%20raid,and%20health%20workers%20were%20targeted." rel="footnote"41 Despite initiatives improving the lives of ordinary Pakistanis through vaccines, scholarships, sanitation, and technology, the United States struggles to communicate these efforts effectively, partly due to self–imposed restrictions on diplomats./p>

Pakistan produces just 0.9 percent of global carbon emissions despite being the fifth most populous country, yet is regularly featured among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change.https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Pakistan%20Updated%20NDC%202021.pdf" rel="footnote">42 Following the floods in Pakistan in August 2022, the Pakistani government used this disparity to persuade donor countries to pledge money for climate resilience and damages. A conference held in Geneva on January 9, 2023, co–hosted by the United Nations and the Government of Pakistan, resulted in over $9 billion pledged from donor countries for flood damages.https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/un-chief-calls-massive-investments-pakistan-recovery-2023-01-09/" rel="footnote">43 However, it’s uncertain that all the funds will be delivered. The United States has responded by committing over $200 million in flood relief,https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/jan-09-2023-united-states-pledges-100-million-support-continued-flood-recovery-efforts-pakistan" rel="footnote">44 disaster resilience, food security assistance, and 500 new scholarships to Pakistani students affected by the floods.https://pk.usembassy.gov/u-s-government-announces-scholarships-for-flood-affected-students-in-pakistan/#:~:text=U.S.%20Government%20Announces%20Scholarships%20for%20Flood%2DAffected%20Students%20in%20Pakistan,-Home%20%7C%20News%20%26%20Events&text=Islamabad%2C%20March%207%2C%202023%3A,them%20in%20completing%20their%20degrees." rel="footnote"45 The Pakistani–American diaspora also proved pivotal in liaising between governments, NGOs, and aid organizations./p>

There are significant people–to–people exchanges between the United States and Pakistan. In 2019, there were approximately 554,000 individuals of Pakistani descent living in the United States compared to 204,000 in 2000.https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/fact-sheet/asian-americans-pakistanis-in-the-u-s/" rel="footnote">46 The diaspora is concentrated in New York, Houston, Washington, and Chicago. Fulbright scholarships were awarded to 189 Pakistanis to begin studies and research at 82 U.S. universities beginning in fall 2022.https://pk.usembassy.gov/189-pakistanis-receive-fulbright-scholarships-for-masters-and-phd-degrees-in-the-united-states/" rel="footnote">47 This continues a trend since 2005 of Pakistan producing the largest contingent of Fulbright scholars.https://usefp.org/scholarships/fulbright-degree-FAQ.cfm" rel="footnote"48 /p>

But this academic and cultural exchange is not a two–way street. Pakistan is not offered as a Fulbright destination for U.S. students, nor are tourism or business exchanges to Pakistan common. The State Department’s Critical Languages Scholarship program sends students to Lucknow, India to study Urdu even though it is the national language of Pakistan, not India. https://clscholarship.org/languages/urdu" rel="footnote">49 Once in Pakistan, U.S. diplomats have few opportunities to travel or meet ordinary Pakistanis.50 U.S. diplomats and defense attachés also conduct shorter tours compared to their European counterparts, partly because they are often unaccompanied by family.https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/28/2003104852/-1/-1/1/TOUR_LENGTHS_AND_TOURS_OF_DUTY_OCONUS.PDF" rel="footnote">51 This hinders U.S. diplomacy, aid, and engagement with Pakistani society.52 Difficulty in obtaining visas, particularly in a timely fashion, remains a hindrance for exchanges running both ways.https://pk.usembassy.gov/expansion-of-interview-waiver-eligibility-for-u-s-visa-holders-from-pakistan-2/, “Global Visa Wait Times,” U.S. Department of State — Bureau of Consular Affairs, last updated August 25, 2023, https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/visa-information-resources/global-visa-wait-times.html" rel="footnote"53/p>

China and the United States form Pakistan’s two most important relationships. It is their shared territorial disputes with India and perceived interest in countering India’s rise that have solidified what Bilawal Bhutto, until recently Pakistan’s foreign minister, recently referred to as an “all–weather strategic cooperative partnership”​​ between China and Pakistan.https://twitter.com/BBhuttoZardari/status/1683834393075372032?s=20" rel="footnote"54 However, Pakistan’s establishment prefers to keep a balance between the two countries and lopsidedness in relations, particularly military–to–military ties, are discomfiting. U.S.–China competition only adds to this discomfort as Pakistan’s leaders worry that they will be forced to choose between the two relationships.55 Moreover, as previously explained, Pakistan is on the sidelines of the U.S. Indopacific strategy, which prioritizes India to contain, or at least balance, China./p>

According to a recent analysis, China is now the top supplier of Pakistan’s conventional weapons and provides 80 percent of its combat airpower, such as JF–17 and F–7 fighter jets.https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/threshold-alliance-china-pakistan-military-relationship" rel="footnote">56 It may also provide Z–10ME attack helicopters to replace older Cobras.https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/threshold-alliance-china-pakistan-military-relationship" rel="footnote">57 However, Pakistan still values its F–16 fleet, and its purchase of Chinese–made weapons is often due to availability rather than preference. The development of Gwadar Port, a deep–sea port along Pakistan’s Makran coast, by China was initiated at the request of Pervez Musharraf, rather than being a machination of Beijing. The port could be a military asset where Chinese naval vessels may stop for refueling and docking, but for now it’s not certain whether there are any plans to create a fully functioning Chinese naval base there.https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/threshold-alliance-china-pakistan-military-relationship" rel="footnote"58/p>

During his testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on June 14, 2023, Geoffrey Pyatt, the State Department’s Assistant Secretary for Energy Resources, blamed China for Pakistan’s heavy dependence on coal–fired power generation, claiming, “I saw first–hand during my visit to Pakistan in March that the PRC has been the driving factor in Pakistan’s ongoing reliance on coal–fired power generation.”https://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA00/20230614/116025/HHRG-118-FA00-Wstate-PyattG-20230614.pdf " rel="footnote">61 Pyatt further pointed out that since 2015, CPEC has invested around $7.2 billion in developing 4,950 megawatts of coal–fired power plants for the national grid, with a substantial portion of the coal imported, exacerbating Pakistan’s financial challenges.https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/gjs_665170/gjsxw_665172/202109/t20210923_9580159.html" rel="footnote">62 The United States is right to caution countries about the risks of Chinese loans and investment, but as long as the United States remains uninvolved in large–scale infrastructure projects, China will be the main player in the region. As mentioned earlier, Washington must scale up its green initiatives https://pk.usembassy.gov/joint-statement-on-u-s-pakistan-climate-and-environment-working-group/#:~:text=Through%20the%20Climate%20and%20Environment,and%20effectiveness%20for%20Pakistani%20farmers; “Fact Sheet: Results from U.S.–Pakistan Climate and Environment Working Group,” U.S. Embassy in Pakistan, March 16, 2023, https://pk.usembassy.gov/fact-sheet-results-from-u-s-pakistan-climate-and-environment-working-group-march-16-2023/; Ambassador Donald Blome’s visit to Thatta District “wind corridor” reaffirmed commitment to technical cooperation. “US to expand energy cooperation with Pakistan: Blome,” GeoNews, May 26, 2023, https://www.geo.tv/latest/489502-us-to-expand-clean-energy-cooperation-with-pakistan-blome" rel="footnote"63 if it wants to provide a genuine alternative. /p>

Pakistan, with a youthful population of just over 240 million and growing, faces many challenges. Its security forces suffer casualties similar to those sustained by the U.S. military during the Afghanistan surge.https://twitter.com/IhsanTipu/status/1514551716473098243?s=20&t=YFC6OHBhBcmKs8UxxoBuiA" rel="footnote"64 Despite not posing an existential threat to the state, these groups still inflict damage by eroding state confidence, straining cohesion, and discouraging investment. While the possibility of a large–scale war with India is real, past escalations were resolved within a few weeks. The two biggest threats to Pakistan are clearly economic collapse and the disastrous effects of climate change. /p>

A positive trajectory for Pakistan will benefit the region and world, but instability will produce worsening consequences. Washington seems more eager than Islamabad to move beyond the security–focused relations of the past and collaborate in areas like trade and climate resilience. The Pakistani government appears deeply committed to crisis diplomacy, despite its desire for a “geoeconomic reset.” As Stephen P. Cohen famously observed in 2004, “Pakistan now negotiates with its allies and friends by pointing a gun to its own head.”The Idea of Pakistan, (Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2004), 270." rel="footnote"65 Such tactics will fail in a world increasingly distracted with geopolitical issues in other regions./p>

Washington should reconsider how it engages with Pakistan and, more importantly, Pakistanis. Despite investing hundreds of millions of dollars in aid, distributing almost 80 million vaccines for COVID–19, offering Fulbright awards to over 4,000 Pakistanis since 1951 https://pk.usembassy.gov/189-pakistanis-receive-fulbright-scholarships-for-masters-and-phd-degrees-in-the-united-states/" rel="footnote">66 and building a network of over 25,000 Pakistanis who have participated in U.S. government sponsored exchange programs,https://fulbrightalumni.usefp.org/puan." rel="footnote"67 and having close ties between political and military elites, many Pakistanis still hold negative views of the United States. This raises concerns about the effectiveness of Washington’s engagement with Pakistani society. The recommendations included in this paper, some of which are already being implemented by the U.S. Embassy, offer a starting point for improving relations and rightsizing expectations. /p>